Forecast method

If you buy vegetables, the signal often appears in the field before it appears in the price. When weather and growth in the main growing regions turn bad, wholesale prices for open-field crops such as napa cabbage and radish rise a few weeks later. Seeing that signal early lets you bring a contract forward. Satellites…

If you plan to use a price forecast, look at its report card first. Anyone can say “cabbage prices will rise next month”. What matters is how often such forecasts were right in the past. Many outlooks come without a report card. Hits are remembered and misses forgotten, which makes them hard to use for…